AI demand forecasting cuts stockouts nearly 30% as Shopify retires its native tool

Retailers running AI-based demand forecasting are seeing measurably fewer stockouts than those still relying on traditional statistical methods — and the shift is being accelerated by a major platform change.

The data

A 2026 study found that AI forecasting models produced 28.6% fewer stockouts than traditional forecasting approaches. On Shopify specifically, AI inventory forecasting is reducing stockouts by 30–50% and overstock by 20–35% for merchants who have adopted it, according to Shopify's own guidance on demand forecasting software.

Adoption is broad-based: 75% of store owners surveyed by Shopify in 2025 already use AI tools in some form, and a separate 2025 study found 91% of supply chain leaders plan to adopt AI forecasting within two years, per NVIDIA's 2026 AI in Retail & CPG survey.

Why it matters now

Shopify began phasing out its free native forecasting tool, Stocky, in July 2025. It was pulled from the App Store in February 2026, with a full shutdown scheduled for August 2026. Merchants who relied on Stocky for basic demand planning now need a dedicated forecasting system — either a third-party app or a custom-built model — to avoid reverting to manual, spreadsheet-based planning.

SPS Commerce's 2026 Demand Report frames this as part of a broader shift: 53% of operations and supply chain leaders now say they're using AI in supply chain planning in either a few areas or widely, specifically to anticipate and mitigate disruptions rather than just react to them after the fact.

What this means for growing retailers

For mid-market retailers still running demand planning through Excel or a soon-to-be-retired native tool, this is a natural forcing function to evaluate a proper forecasting system before the gap in tooling becomes a gap in inventory accuracy. See our case study on how a US apparel brand cut inventory costs 28% with AI-powered demand forecasting for what that transition looks like in practice, or explore Cor Advance Solutions' AI & Machine Learning services to see how a forecasting system gets built around your existing sales and inventory data.